NDC: The heart of climate action

Climate change is a complex, multifaceted global challenge that transcends borders. It can only be addressed through coordinated international action. The urgent need to confront this crisis has gotten the world together to forge a unified yet deceptively simple framework—the Paris Agreement—designed to align collective and intensify individual action towards combating climate change.

All our heads of state met in Paris in 2015 to decide an achievable but ambitious target to limit temperature rise to well below 2 °C preferably 1.5 °C in a manner that countries decide for themselves, in line with domestic capabilities. Each one decides how much they will contribute to climate action mindful of the historic and present actions that have contributed to climate change.

The Paris agreement starts by asking states to give the UN their formal climate action strategies to specifically outline plans to limit temperature rise and adapt to its worse effects. These come in a variety of formal submissions, but the one that is periodically revised is called Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). They are formal intentions of short to medium term climate actions. As submissions are standardized and revised every 5 years, the NDCs are the backbone of the Paris Agreement. In a similar manner, we also have Long term Low Emission Development Strategies called LT-LEDs or just LTS. Their time horizons are longer, with the end goal being carbon neutrality. They are submitted once, but states can update them if plans change. Some states are yet to submit theirs, with the deadline being the end of 2024.

NDCs are updated every 5 years. The first round of NDCs were submitted in 2016 right after the Paris Agreement was signed, called Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (iNDC). The next round was submitted in 2020 after a major report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) highlighted just how far we are to achieve the goals of the Paris agreement.

In 2023, we had the global stocktaking process where we evaluated our actions so far against our goals. Member countries, the UNFCCC Secretariat, technical bodies like the IPCC and civil society checked submissions from the countries if they have successfully implemented their climate promises under the NDC. The stocktaking process determined that our efforts have not been sufficient. So, all the countries discussed these findings and recommended methods to enhance ambition and implementation of the climate action plans. These recommendations were called the Outcomes of the Global Stocktake which was passed at COP28 in Dubai last year.

This document will now influence the next round of NDCs submission in 2025. This will be the third NDC. The outcomes of the global stocktake were an ambitious set of policies, specifically as they pertained to mitigating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the energy sector. This process saw a major victory for nuclear energy because for the first time in climate negotiations nuclear was considered as one of the solutions states can include in their efforts to decarbonize their energy. This means, the 3rd NDCs that will be submitted next year can be influenced by this historic inclusion of nuclear energy as part of our solution to the climate crisis.

Although legally mandated, these climate plans are as enforceable as any other form of international law; which is to say not at all. Given the ambitious input, it is likely that states will diverge from the promises made within these submissions- change in administration, priorities, security situations, etc can lead to an unfulfillment, or even a reversal of stated goals. But they do indicate action and intent.